Frases de Herman Kahn

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Herman Kahn

Data de nascimento: 15. Fevereiro 1922
Data de falecimento: 7. Julho 1983


Herman Kahn foi um estrategista militar e teórico da Corporação RAND que ficou conhecido por suas análises sobre as prováveis conseqüências de uma guerra nuclear. No Brasil ficou famoso por causa do seu projeto Grandes Lagos.

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Citações Herman Kahn


„In addition to not looking too dangerous to ourselves, we must not look too dangerous to our allies. This problem has many similarities with the problem of not looking too dangerous to ourselves, with one important addition—our allies must believe that being allied to us actually increases their security. Very few of our allies feel that they could survive a general war—even one fought without the use of Doomsday Machines. Therefore, to the extent that we try to use the threat of a general war to deter the minor provocations that are almost bound to occur anyway, then no matter how credible we try to make this threat, our allies will eventually find the protection unreliable or disadvantageous to them. If credible, the threat is too dangerous to be lived with. If incredible, the lack of credibility itself will make the defense seem unreliable. Therefore, in the long run the West will need "safe-looking" limited war forces to handle minor and moderate provocations. It will most likely be necessary for the U. S. to make a major contribution to such forces and to take the lead in their creation, even though there are cases where the introduction of credible and competent-looking limited war forces will make some of our allies apprehensive—at least in the short run. They will worry because such forces make the possibility of small wars seem more real, but this seems to be another case where one cannot eat his cake and have it.“

—  Herman Kahn


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