# Frases de George E. P. Box

## George E. P. Box

**Data de nascimento:** 18. Outubro 1919**Data de falecimento:** 28. Março 2013

George Edward Pelham Box FRS was a British statistician, who worked in the areas of quality control, time-series analysis, design of experiments, and Bayesian inference. He has been called "one of the great statistical minds of the 20th century".

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### Citações George E. P. Box

### „We have a large reservoir of engineers (and scientists) with a vast background of engineering know how. They need to learn statistical methods that can tap into the knowledge. Statistics used as a catalyst to engineering creation will, I believe, always result in the fastest and most economical progress…“

— George E. P. Box

Statement of 1992, quoted in Introduction to Statistical Experimental Design — What is it? Why and Where is it Useful? (2002) Johan Trygg & Svante Wold

### „A mechanistic model has the following advantages:

1. It contributes to our scientiﬁc understanding of the phenomenon under study.

2. It usually provides a better basis for extrapolation (at least to conditions worthy of further experimental investigation if not through the entire range of all input variables).

3. It tends to be parsimonious (i. e, frugal) in the use of parameters and to provide better estimates of the response“

— George E. P. Box

p. 13-14 as cited in: Andrew Odlyzko (2010) Social Networks and Mathematical Models http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko/doc/ecra.westland.pdf Electronic Commerce Research and Applications 9(1): 26-28 (2010)

### „An innovative discussion of building empirical models and the fitting of surfaces to data. Introduces the general philosophy of response surface methodology, and details least squares for response surface work, factorial designs at two levels, fitting second-order models, adequacy of estimation and the use of transformation, occurrence and elucidation of ridge systems, and more. Some results are presented for the first time. Includes real-life exercises, nearly all with solutions.“

— George E. P. Box

Introduction, book summary

### „Statistical criteria should (1) be sensitive to change in the specific factors tested, (2) be insensitive to changes, of a magnitude likely to occur in practice, in extraneous factors.“

— George E. P. Box

G.E.P Box (1955); cited in: JOC/EFR (2006) " George Edward Pelham Box http://www-history.mcs.st-and.ac.uk/Biographies/Box.html" at history.mcs.st-and.ac.uk, Nov 2006.

### „All models are wrong; some models are useful.“

— George E. P. Box

For instance in George E. P. Box, William Hunter and Stuart Hunter, Statistics for Experimenters, second edition, 2005, page 440. See "All models are wrong".

### „For the theory-practice iteration to work, the scientist must be, as it were, mentally ambidextrous; fascinated equally on the one hand by possible meanings, theories, and tentative models to be induced from data and the practical reality of the real world, and on the other with the factual implications deducible from tentative theories, models and hypotheses.“

— George E. P. Box

p. 792

### „Since all models are wrong the scientist cannot obtain a "correct" one by excessive elaboration. On the contrary following William of Occam he should seek an economical description of natural phenomena. Just as the ability to devise simple but evocative models is the signature of the great scientist so overelaboration and overparameterization is often the mark of mediocrity.“

— George E. P. Box

p. 792

### „We have a large reservoir of engineers (and scientists) with a vast background of engineering know how. They need to learn statistical methods that can tap into the knowledge. Statistics used as a catalyst to engineering creation will, I believe, always result in the fastest and most economical progress…“

— George E. P. Box

Statement of 1992, quoted in Introduction to Statistical Experimental Design — What is it? Why and Where is it Useful? (2002) Johan Trygg & Svante Wold